What a shocking year it has been for investors. The global
financial crisis has deepened, bringing with it fear and loathing.
The easy annual double-digit gains of the preceding five years have
been replaced by losses, some of them huge. No one is brave enough,
or foolish enough, to predict where it will end. It is at times
like this that fund managers are challenged to prove their
worth.
The Australian sharemarket lost about 14 per cent during the
year to August 31, while international shares lost almost 17 per
cent in Australian dollar terms (these are total returns including
dividends).
Australian listed property - a defensive sector no more - has
lost 35 per cent during the past year.
Most "value" managers, who would normally be expected to hold up
well because they invest conservatively, have been hit for six.
Yet a handful of managers have been able to limit the losses of
their unit holders. During the final madness of the boom they were
criticised for being cautious, for sitting on the sidelines and
letting their cash build up while leaving easy gains on the
table.
They were the managers who could not justify paying the high
share prices that many companies reached in the latter stages of
the boom last year. They considered the risk of a tumble in share
prices was too high.
They watched as others piled into resources and topped the
performance league tables six months ago. Those fund managers have
now fallen back as commodity prices have weakened on fears of
slower global economic growth.
Then there is the other darling of the Australian sharemarket -
the banking sector. Despite being hugely profitable and paying
growing dividends, the sector has been side-swiped by the turmoil
on international markets and hit by the prospects of a slowing
economy at home.
Ben Davis, the associate director of funds researcher Zenith
Investment Partners, says government bonds and gold are about the
only investments to do well over the past year.
The tables show funds ranked by their one-year return.
"There is not much green ink showing in the performance surveys,
it is mostly red," he says.
The investors in share-based managed funds that have done the
best are those whose losses have been minimised.
The better-performing share funds have tended to be those that
picked the rise of the soft-commodities cycle and avoided the
financial-services companies. Rising food prices are being driven
by demand from emerging economies and the increasing use of farm
products in bio-fuel production. Yet, arable land is diminishing
and demand is growing for products that can increase crop
yields.
Australian shares
Ben Davis points to Greencape Capital as one of the few fund
managers that has been able to keep losses for its unit holders to
less than 6 per cent for the year. Greencape's High Conviction Fund
invests mostly in Australian shares but can invest up to 10 per
cent in overseas-listed companies. Greencape was started in 2006 by
Matthew Ryland and David Pace, who had worked for Merrill Lynch
Investment Managers.
The fund has been underweight in resources and banks, which has
helped its performance. But the fund's relatively good performance
has come from more than just avoiding poorly performing sectors. It
has made good money from fertiliser- and explosives-maker Incitec
Pivot and another company at the forefront of crop protection,
Nufarm. Other big contributors to the fund include Campbell
Brothers, whose main business is analytical testing for the mining
industry, environmental testing, equipment maintenance and
chemicals.
Ryland says Campbell Brothers is a global player that is
benefiting from the mining boom and has one of the most "effective
management teams around, with a very good long-term track of
delivery".
As for the market turmoil, Ryland says: "We are probably through
the worst of it but it is going to be a long, slow grind back."
He is looking forward to when fundamentals start driving the
market again. "Nothing is more frustrating than having share prices
driven by short-term issues, although it does create plenty of
opportunities and we are setting up our portfolio [to] take
advantage of them."
For the managed funds that invest in the local stockmarket's
minnow companies, the going has been particularly tough. The
S&P Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index is down more than 19
per cent for the year.
Australian Ethical Investment is the deepest-green manager in
Australia. Its Ethical Trust has restricted losses for the year to
3 per cent.
It is a fund that invests in smaller capitalised Australian
companies and has about 25 per cent of its money invested in
overseas-listed stocks. The manager will not invest in about 85 per
cent of the Australian sharemarket on ethical grounds. Although it
will not invest in the traditional resources sector, it has been
investing in explorers, producers and retailers of coal-seam gas
companies, such as Origin Energy, Arrow Energy and Pure Energy
Resources. The manager has backed the three stocks because
coal-seam gas emits 50 per cent less carbon dioxide than coal-fired
power generation.
A long-term holding of the fund is natural-therapies maker
Blackmores. The fund also has a big holding in eServGlobal, which
is listed in London and Australia and makes billing software for
mobile-phone companies.
Andy Gracey, the fund's portfolio manager, says eServGlobal is
an Australian company that operates in 15 countries and has
contracts with more than 80 mobile phone companies, most of which
are in the developing world, where the "subscriber growth is going
through the roof". Gracey says blood-products maker CSL and
ear-implant manufacturer Cochlear have been good performers and
their defensive characteristics are starting to show through in
these tough times.
International shares
Global sharemarkets have been gripped by fear, with Japanese and
European shares down about 20 per cent and shares in the US down
about 16 per cent. The credit squeeze is tightening its grip,
sucking liquidity out of the global economy.
China, the world's manufacturing powerhouse, has decreased
production levels and commodity stocks have been sold off in recent
months. Finance sector companies around the world have taken a
beating, especially those carrying high levels of debt.
Against this background, international share funds that have
done the best have tended to be those that have avoided the Western
financial sector or have been very selective about which ones they
hold.
The GVI Global Industrial Share Fund has been one of the better
performers, and in this market that means restricting the losses to
7 per cent for the year. Global Value Investors is the
international shares division of Anton Tagliaferro's Investors
Mutual and Treasury Group.
The GVI team is led by head of investment Roy Chen. The fund has
been underweight in US stocks and underweight in the financial
sector since its inception in 2005.
Matthew Hegarty, GVI's senior equities analyst, says the fund
does not hold any US financial stocks and the financial-sector
stocks the fund owns have no direct exposure to the US sub-prime
mortgage market.
"It has been an unbelievably tough market," Hegarty says.
"Confidence has really seeped out of the market and sentiment
has been overwhelmingly negative."
Since the fund's inception it has been overweight in continental
Europe. Telecommunications and healthcare companies are performing
particularly well because of their strong balance sheets. German
energy company E.ON and Dutch-based KPN International, which is
"probably the best telco in Europe", Hegarty says, have done well
for the fund. American consumer healthcare company Johnson &
Johnson has also been a strong performer.
Little-known boutique manager Peters MacGregor Capital
Management's Global Fund has been investing in companies that are
relatively immune from the problems on global sharemarkets, losing
slightly less than 7 per cent for the year.
The fund owns Michael Hill Jeweller, a New Zealand-based company
that also does business in Australia and Canada. It owns the
Toronto-listed insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited and the
New York-listed Iron Mountain, the largest document-storage company
in the world. The fund's second-largest holding is Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway investment company.
Peters MacGregor founder, Wayne Peters, invests on financial
fundamentals. His fund, which underperformed in the boom, was
cash-heavy because it refused to pay the high prices for shares as
the boom gathered pace.
His conservative strategy is starting to pay off but "when
everybody was flying it was a pretty hard story to tell", he says.
Since the beginning of July the fund is up 8 per cent.
Peters says exchange rates are unpredictable and so the fund is
fully hedged for currency.
That has added to the fund's returns during the past year
because, until recently, the Australian dollar had increased in
value, particularly against the US dollar.
Debt driven
Australian listed property is going through its toughest time
since the property crash of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when
investors couldn't get their money out of unlisted property trusts.
The solution, it was agreed at the time, was to provide liquidity
to investors in future by listing the trusts on the
sharemarket.
But since those dark days, many listed trusts have ventured away
from being passive owners of buildings and collectors of rents into
riskier activities such as development and construction.
The ratio of debt to assets of Australian real estate investment
trusts (A-REITs), as the sector is now known, has increased to more
than 40 per cent from just 10 per cent in the mid-1990s.
Recently, listed property trust Centro announced a loss of
almost $3 billion for the 2007-08 year, which was one of the
biggest in Australian corporate history, and it continues to battle
for survival.
The fundamentals of the Australian commercial property market
remain sound. The main problem in the sector is with some of the
trusts' balance sheets. They took on too much short-term debt to
fund their expansion plans and in some cases, their distributions.
They are having to reduce short-term debt through asset sales and
lower their distributions to investors.
All the while the APN Property for Income Fund, which has been
going for 10 years, kept investing the way it always has - with a
focus on income rather than capital growth. A $100,000 investment
in the fund at inception would now be worth more than $300,000,
assuming distributions were reinvested.
Some managers have produced better returns over short periods,
but few can match this fund over the long term. The fund has
produced an annual average total return of 11.7 per cent since
inception but, like the property sector in which it invests, the
investors in the fund have taken a hit during the past year as the
fund has fallen by about 26 per cent.
Howard Brenchley, the founder and chief investment officer of
APN Funds Management, says it is income from rents rather than
capital growth that drives the value of commercial property over
the long term. "While capital values will fluctuate, no one can
take away the distributions already received," Brenchley says. "The
ability to manage risk and to find sustainable sources of income in
property will only become more important as the market
recovers."
Can't bank on it
The standout performer in Australian shares during the past year
has been the SGH20 fund, run by SG Hiscock & Company, which
achieved returns of more than 12 per cent while other Australian
share fund managers were in the red.
The fund was founded by Stephen Hiscock in 2001. He is the big
owner, with the remainder owned by staff.
Hiscock is media-shy and reluctant to give interviews. Although
he is pleased with these returns, he knows performance can turn
around quickly and is worried about the "tall-poppy syndrome".
Not all of Hiscock's funds are doing as well. The manager's
small-companies fund is down more than 30 per cent for the year -
well below the index return.
The SGH20 is managed by Robert Hook and Tim Wood. The fund holds
a maximum of 20 stocks and has been underweight in the Australian
financial sector, which has helped its performance relative to the
index. Australian financial stocks have taken a hammering; NAB's
total returns are down 33 per cent during the year to August
31.
Contributors to the performance of SGH20 include blood-products
maker CSL, whose total return (share price plus dividends) has
risen 26 per cent in the year to August 31, and Woodside Petroleum,
whose total return increased 40 per cent. Crop-protection company
Incitec Pivot has also performed well, as has construction and
contracting companies Leighton Holdings and BHP.
TOP 25 GLOBAL SHARES RETURN
Fund name 1yr % 3yr % 5yr %
Zurich Investments Hedged Global Thematic Share -3.34 ??? ???
Five Oceans World Fund (Professional) -5.7 ??? ???
Goldman Sachs JBWere Hedged International Wsale -5.92 7.13 ???
Five Oceans Wholesale World Fund -6.22 ??? ???
Peters MacGregor Global Fund -6.84 3.56 ???
BlackRock WS Hedged Global Titans -7.2 7.54 11.54
Global Value Investors Fund -7.34 6.78 7.51
GVI Global Industrial Share Fund -7.36 8.13 ???
Fidelity Hedged Global Equities Fund -7.42 ??? ???
K2 Select International Absolute Return -7.43 15.37 ???
Skandia GWS-Skandia GVI Global Industrial Share -7.55 ??? ???
Sandhurst Professional GVI Global Industrial Fund -7.61 ??? ???
BlackRock P Inv Hedged Global Titans -7.63 7.07 11.11
Global Equities Strategic Opportunities Alpha -7.82 ??? ???
BlackRock Hedged Global Titans Fund -7.93 6.69 10.68
Skandia GIS-Skandia GVI Global Industrial Share -7.95 ??? ???
MFS Fully Hedged Global Equity Trust -8.17 8.42 ???
Magellan Global Fund -8.25 ??? ???
Skandia GWS-Skandia MFS Hedged Global Equity -8.39 7.89 ???
Skandia OIS-Skandia GVI Global Industrial Share -8.5 ??? ???
Skandia GIS-Skandia MFS Hedged Global Equity -9.35 7.29 ???
Skandia OIS-Skandia MFS Hedged Global Equity -9.69 6.66 ???
Perpetual WFI Vanguard Int'l Shares Index (Hedged) -9.79 5.59 ???
MLC Wholesale Hedged Global Share Fund Class B -9.86 ??? ???
Walter Scott Global Equity Fund -10.06 3.21 ???
*CLOSED TO NEW INVESTMENT
SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR
TOP 25 AUSTRALIAN LISTED PROPERTY RETURN
Fund name 1yr % 3yr % 5yr %
Aust Unity Property Securities Income # -6.17 5.08 7.48
Experts' Choice Property Securities Fund -18.46 3.4 9.79
Perpetual's Wholesale Property Income Fund -23.75 2.46 ???
Netwealth Property Share Fund -24.37 -1.06 6.12
Perpetual WFI - Perpetual's Property Income Fund -25.17 0.47 ???
APN Property for Income Fund -26.52 3.45 9.76
Skandia GWS-Skandia APN Property for Income -26.6 3.31 9.69
Skandia GIS-Skandia APN Property for Income -26.88 2.86 9.14
Perpetual WFI APN Property for Income -27.02 2.51 ???
Norwich Union Invest Bond Listed Property Trust # -27.14 -1.42 4.3
Skandia OIS-Skandia APN Property for Income -27.24 2.34 8.65
Mercer Property Fund -28.93 0.16 ???
BT PPSI - MLC Wholesale Property Securities Fund -31.08 -0.25 7.71
MLC Wholesale Property Securities Fund -31.08 -0.25 7.71
PIC Wholesale Property Securities Fund -31.09 ??? ???
BT Investment - APN Property For Income -31.19 0.25 6.84
National Investment Trust - Property Fund # -31.38 -0.92 7.06
BT Wholesale - Property Securities Fund -31.55 0.19 7.62
BT Wholesale - Property Investment Fund -31.56 0.01 7.42
MLC MKey InvSer/UT Prop Securities Fund -31.66 -1 6.92
CFS FC WS Inv - BT WS Property Investment -31.73 -0.14 7.19
National Investment Trust - Property NEF # -31.77 -1.52 6.44
CFS FC Inv - BT Property Investment -32.04 -0.71 6.56
Aviva Investors Prof Listed Property -32.15 0.59 8.52
The Property Income Plus Fund -32.2 -0.87 7.31
*CLOSED TO NEW INVESTMENT
SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR