The Reserve Bank no longer has to decide between cutting
interest rates by 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points this week. The real
question is whether to go full bore and cut by 0.75 percentage
points to unclog the financial system.
The money is on 0.5 - less panicky and it leaves room next month
for the same again if things are still too tight. And they will be
because the banks will pass on only half of this at best.
They're not being stingy. All right, they are, but it's not
profiteering.
So the banks made a record profit last year, eh? Most companies
did; remember we had an economic boom once.
If it's any consolation their profits will fall as lending
slows, bad debts grow and costs rise which hanging on to some of
the rate cut will only partly offset.
Mum's the word but they even have a case for increasing their
rates because of last week's jump in their funding costs.
Anyway, considering the size of their assets, the banks aren't
the profit machines you imagine.
If you had $80 billion in fixed assets then you'd expect $4
billion in profit, too. Speaking for myself, I'd insist on
more.
Their return on equity shows the banks are in the middle bracket
of profitability, ranging from the NAB's 14.5 to Westpac's 21.7 per
cent. For sheer greed consider BHP Billiton's 40.1 per cent (oops,
that's OK because we need the China boom) or Telstra's 30.7 per
cent.
But if banks are greedy how about Woolies at 27.2 per cent -
shouldn't it be slashing grocery prices?
For the banks to pass on the whole rate cut they'd have to stop
lending because every new loan would cost them more than they could
get back.
There goes the housing industry for starters. Worse, the erosion
in their profits would eat into their capital and undermine the
entire financial system.
And here's the irony: it would also hurt the wrong lenders.
The banks' competitors would quickly become insolvent if they
managed to keep any customers, who would more likely flee to the
banks for the cheaper rates.
There'd hardly be a better way to boost bank profits than
that.