"What's subprime?" I heard a man ask his friend as they walked
down a street in town last week.
"It's a loan they gave to lots of people in America who couldn't
afford the repayments," the friend said. "Basically, it's a crap
loan."
"So what's a bunch of crap loans over the other side of the
world got to do with us?"
It's a question that has no doubt been asked by thousands of
people around the country last week as the subprime mortgage mess
caused our sharemarket - along with markets around the world - to
go berserk.
So let's do a little Credit Crisis 101.
"Crap" is probably an appropriate, if inelegant, word to
describe subprime mortgages. These loans were issued at rock-bottom
interest rates - often to people without a deposit and with very
low incomes - that ratcheted up dramatically in subsequent
years.
Why would any sensible lender agree to a loan that stood such a
high chance of going into default?
Because property was booming and there was an expectation the
borrower could use the equity that would build up in the honeymoon
period to refinance.
Oh, and because lenders could package up these loans and sell
them to institutional investors as funky new financial instruments
so it was no skin off their nose if borrowers defaulted anyway.
Except the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, so
the leap in borrowers' repayments was even more than originally it
would have been. Property prices started to fall. And people
started defaulting in droves.
The thing is, thanks to the "genius" of the investment bankers
who dreamed up the funky financial instruments, institutions across
the globe were exposed to these defaults: from a school in the US
mid-west to a local council in a German backwater, a swag of local
Australian councils and some of our biggest banks.
Worse still, a bit of accounting wizardry meant no one knew
which companies had this so-called toxic debt on their balance
sheets and might therefore be in danger of collapse.
So institutions became reluctant to lend to each other unless at
vastly higher interest rates - the reason we have seen mortgage
rates move higher than the Reserve Bank intended.
Slowly but surely over the past few months it has become only
too clear just how widespread is the subprime exposure, and just
how critical is the funding situation for companies that rely on
borrowings to keep afloat. As the number of corporate collapses and
fire sales of big-name financial firms has increased, the invisible
money flow that underpins our entire financial system has virtually
dried up.
And that's what sent our sharemarket reeling last week.
There is much speculation about where this mess will ultimately
leave us. A doomsday, pre-$US700 billion ($901 billion) bail-out
scenario was widespread unemployment as the world was gripped by a
depression.
The worst-case scenario is probably a global recession and a big
jump in the difficulty and cost of getting credit - for households,
mortgages, personal loans and charge cards. But hopefully it won't
come to that.
In any case, the bail-out was designed to stop the credit crisis
moving from Wall Street to Main Street. But judging by the
conversation I overheard last week, on an awareness level at least
it's getting awfully close.
See our cover story for the time line of the crisis - and your
disaster recovery plan (page 6). And turn to David Koch's and Penny
Pryor's columns for further analysis (pages 4 and 5).