Of the extraordinary events on world financial markets in
the past fortnight, there's one that should make you sit up and
take notice: a huge play by billionaire investor Warren
Buffett.
Until now America's second richest man after Bill Gates has been
content to sit on the sidelines and issue the occasional dire
prediction for the financial system, only last week describing the
situation as "an economic Pearl Harbour" in reference to the
surprise attack by Japan in World War II.
But on Wednesday the man revered as the world's best investor
sank $6 billion into beleaguered US investment bank Goldman Sachs,
which along with Morgan Stanley was one of the surviving two on
Wall Street (both have now converted to commercial banks so they
can raise money from deposits).
In response, our market - despite a negative lead from the US -
rose 1.2 per cent as investors followed his lead and piled into
financial stocks.
So what makes one, albeit large, investment on the other side of
the world so influential? Quite simply that it was made by Buffett.
The man's investment prowess is nothing short of legendary. The
Berkshire Hathaway fund that Buffett runs has made a compound
annual return of 25 per cent over the past 30 years, roughly double
that of the S&P 500. A single share will set you back more than
$US133,000 ($160,000).
He has managed this phenomenal return by investing in a
succession of unsexy businesses - think insurance, banks and trains
- in line with perhaps his most quoted investment axiom: don't
invest in something you don't understand. Which is why he also
famously avoided the dotcom bubble. His predilection for the
pedestrian saw him miss the boom - and subsequent bust. He was
heard to say at the time he couldn't understand how companies with
no earnings and no assets could be worth small fortunes. Not for
long.
Buffett has seen his reputation for divination rise a further
notch courtesy of the current crisis. Since 2002 he has been
warning about the dangers of excessive gearing and derivatives -
the "financial equivalent of weapons of mass destruction" - which
hedge funds have used to target highly leveraged companies and
drive down share prices. So it's not just Buffett's successes, but
also his ability to avoid failure that makes people take
notice.
The 77-year-old, who is worth an estimated $40 billion,
essentially looks for quality, well-managed companies that are
undervalued by the market. And he is prepared to wait. Probably one
of his most ignored mantras is: "Don't get rich quick."
Buffett's investment philosophy has ensured he is perfectly
positioned - cashed up with very little debt - to take advantage of
a market meltdown that has seen good companies punished with
bad.
His Goldman Sachs move assumes Congress will pass the $US700
billion bank bail-out, which would buy and then quarantine the
so-called toxic mortgages, provide relief to homeowners in danger
of default and cap the salaries of the Wall Street high flyers
responsible for creating the mess.
On the bail-out, he says it's "absolutely necessary, in my view,
to really avoid going over the precipice".
Buffett's betting that it will, firstly, go ahead and, secondly,
restore sanity to the market. Let's hope that, once again, he's
right.