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Sharemarket climate means now's not the time to buy

David Potts | September 24 2008 | The Sydney Morning Herald & The Age (subscribe)

That's what David Morgan, Westpac's retired chief used to tell the treasurer in his former life in the treasury. By the looks of it, Wayne Swan has been told the same thing.

Anyway it should work a treat in this market, or what's left of it, that is.

Have you noticed how many experts there are these days on what went wrong, and that the bear market will be over before you know it?

All reassuring, only I wish they had let us in on the secret of an impending global financial meltdown a year ago. Must have slipped their minds, though, to be fair, nobody could have predicted how clumsy the US Federal Reserve would prove to be.

Now they're saying it's the long term that counts, so it's safe to be buying.

Ah, the long term. That sure covers a multitude of sins. The beauty of it is that it's so elastic; if a stock doesn't come good after five years, there's always another five, or 2035 or whenever. And if it doesn't come good by then it probably won't matter anyway.

In globalised markets you can't set and forget any more. Being on the fringe is no protection against a financial convulsion.

The market is being driven by panic so there's no telling where it'll finish up. In fact it's fallen by more than Wall Street where the real problems are and, in deference to China worshippers, I won't mention how Shanghai has fared.

At some point - I nearly said in the long term - the sharemarket will deliver because profits will start growing again.

And the dollar has chivalrously thrown itself against tumbling commodity prices.

While its manner of delivery might leave a lot to be desired, the market is telling us something: that, although the economy is faring better than anyone dared hope, the slowdown hasn't hit yet.

The Reserve Bank isn't kidding when it says growth will halve over the next six months.

Yet analysts haven't even begun to review their profit forecasts for the next six, let alone 12, months.

I suspect the next round of broker downgrades, which will probably start next month when the banks report, will be a better time for buying.

Speaking of banks, they've been marked down most by the market, and are still to take a hit from the global downturn in property prices caused by the credit crunch.

Since this is likely to be an agonisingly long process, all I can say is just sit there.

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