Talk about champagne tastes on a beer income.
Only in this case the beer income will do fine, thank you.
Foster's has been left a little tipsy from its foray into wine,
forced to write down a massive $605 million and marring what could
have been a good result.
One consolation is that the $718 million net profit and a higher
earnings per share was still bigger than the write-down.
Foster's paid too much for Southcorp three years ago in the
middle of a grape glut, leading to an oversupply of wine.
Then it made an even bigger blunder, introducing what it called
a multi-beverage distribution channel, meaning the same sales reps
selling beer also sold plonk - oops, fine wine. Can't imagine why
that didn't work.
At last it's making amends by changing its selling strategy and
setting up what in Canberra would be called a special task force to
review the wine division. It reports by the end of the year.
This has been made tricky by the fact that technically it no
longer has a chief executive - oh well, who needs one anyway? -
though whoever replaces Trevor O'Hoy will apparently be briefed
about where the review is going in the meantime, which sounds
sensible until you consider the risk of frightening away any decent
prospect.
Since its Australian wine operation is profitable, the big
problem is in the US, although the weakening dollar should help
clear some of the surplus plonk before it can flog off any assets,
or more likely follow the latest fashion of splitting the business
into separate beer and wine stocks.
Meanwhile, back at the brewery which produces about two-thirds
of the group's profit, Foster's has shown great skill in boosting
its beer income, thanks to the success of its low-carb Pure Blonde
and despite losing some market share of the big-selling VB.
When it eventually gets its wine division into shape - which is
only a matter of time - Foster's will be quite the cash, um, cask.
Certainly its healthy cash flow means it has no trouble paying a
consistent fully-franked dividend which, if you bought shares at
their current price, would give you a yield of 4.7 per cent -
though there are better returns around and, besides, you've just
missed this payout.
More to the point is that you're likely to be waiting a while
before you see any decent capital growth.
Then again, you can say that applies to most of the market.
Brokers are split down the middle about the stock, with three
calling it a buy, three a sell and seven a hold.
Advantages
Cash flow
Good dividend
Low debt
Top brands
Disadvantages
Wine writedown
Exchange rate risk
New MD unknown
Gearing
Verdict
Owns strong brands in a very competitive and recession-proof
global business. Although a safe stock for the times, it's not a
great bargain.