The decline came despite strong performance from most of
Wesfarmers' other businesses, especially Bunnings and its resources
division, which benefited from higher coal prices. But Coles is now
Wesfarmers' main growth engine and that's where the focus rightly
is.
There is a simpler explanation for the pressure on its share
price: they paid too much for Coles. Shareholders will suffer
weaker profitability for years before the payback. If the
turnaround is successful and Coles can start generating the sort of
return on capital that rival Woolworths is capable of, that will
create shareholder value. But at what cost in the interim?
Wesfarmers is one of the few Australian blue-chip companies that
genuinely understands how shareholder value is created. This is why
it always gives details of divisional return on capital and overall
return on equity, or shareholders' funds. Last week's headline
profit-growth numbers looked good but return on shareholders' funds
across the business dropped from 25.1 per cent last year to 8.5 per
cent this year.
Given the additional capital raised to buy the underperforming
Coles, it is not surprising that profitability (as opposed to
profits) has declined. But the deterioration would not have been so
bad if Wesfarmers hadn't paid nearly four times Coles's book value,
which was too high a price.
The outlook Wesfarmers has the task of continuing its massive
turnaround program in a slowing economic environment. There is
little doubt the turnaround will prove successful in time. The
stellar performance of its other retail division, Bunnings
Warehouse, indicates genuine management expertise and skill in this
area. But Wesfarmers will take years to get back to generating 25
per cent-plus return on equity numbers.
Price Although Wesfarmers has been a strong dividend payer over
the years, its recent share price performance has been lacklustre.
At about $33, the shares are again approaching the lows for the
year and are well down on the highs of about $45, reached in the
euphoric days of the Coles acquisition.
Worth buying? Despite the company's quality asset base and
management team, Wesfarmers is facing some short-term headwinds
that make us cautious about buying. Firstly, the slowing economy
could lead to lower than expected earnings for next year and the
stock price is moving down noticeably. Another area of concern is
the company's large capital expenditure requirements, which will
hit $2 billion next year - up from $1.2 billion last year. Given
Wesfarmers pays out a decent portion of its earnings as dividends,
the company will continue to be under pressure from a financing
perspective. The dividend reinvestment plan has been reinstated to
assist with the funding requirements; however, such a plan will
also ensure that more shares are on issue, diluting the per-share
statistics. Avoid for now.