With official interest rates expected to fall by 0.25 percentage
points next week and drop even lower in coming months, borrowers on
variable-rate loans will get some relief. But what should borrowers
coming off fixed-rate loans do? Should they jump into another
fixed-rate loan or switch to variable?
"Consumers may as well ride the market down now," says Steven
Anderson, the head of research at financial comparison website
InfoChoice.
That is because three-year fixed rates are about 9 per cent -
the same as most people pay for their their variable-rate home
loans. Generally, as variable rates fall, so do fixed rates, unless
economic conditions change.
Analysts are anticipating a 0.25 percentage-point cut next week
followed by a further cut of 0.25 percentage points in October and
possibly more. For those mortgaged up to their eyeballs who want to
insure against higher repayments, there are more cheaply priced
fixed-rate loans, such as non-bank lender RESI's three-year fixed
rate of 8.52 per cent and HSBC's three-year fixed rate (available
to new customers only) of 7.99 per cent.
Variable rate mortgages are priced off the cash rate or official
interest rates set by the Reserve Bank. Fixed rates, on the other
hand, normally move in line with where analysts expect interest
rates to go in the future. When the economic outlook turns gloomy,
market rates generally fall and so do fixed-interest loans.
However, another factor has been introduced into the market -
shrinking competition. Non-bank lenders have been hit hard by the
credit crisis, driving their borrowing costs higher. This has
reduced competition, to the benefit of the big banks, which have
been able to fatten their profit margins.
The Aussies, RAMS and Wizards of this world, who put the banks
under pressure, are less competitive, says Warren O'Rourke,
national manager of corporate affairs at mortgage broker Mortgage
Choice. "We have a new landscape - and one we have probably not
seen since the early '90s."
InfoChoice's Anderson says one year ago the banks' margins
(variable-rate interest rate minus the 90-day bank bill rate) were
less than 1.5 percentage points but now are more than 2 percentage
points.
In the absence of strong competition from non-bank lenders,
O'Rourke says, the most likely source now comes from the
international banks operating in Australia.
Consumers looking for a better deal on their mortgage could look
at what is available from ING, BankWest (owned by British bank
HBOS), Citigroup and HSBC.
The view on the economy and interest rates can change quickly.
It was only a few weeks ago that financial markets were pencilling
steady or rising rates into their economic forecasts because of low
unemployment and inflation fears. But the economy has softened
since then and predicting rates is not an exact science. There's
always a possibility that official interest rates could remain on
hold or could increase, further down the track.
"If the consumer can afford to take the losses associated with
any possible interest rate increases, then variable rate mortgages
are the better bet for those who expect rates to fall in the near
future," says Frank Lopez, a financial analyst with research firm
Cannex. "However, if a consumer's financial constraints require
absolute certainty that their mortgage costs won't increase, then
fix the mortgage. And for those not sure what to do - they can go
for a split mortgage, fixing part of your mortgage and going
variable on the remainder."
Lisa Montgomery, head consumer adviser at RESI, says many
borrowers coming out of fixed rate terms at the big banks are
reverting to their existing bank's standard variable mortgage rate
of about 9.6 per cent.
But anyone with a mortgage of more than $250,000 should be able
to negotiate a discount on the standard interest rate of up to 0.7
percentage points.
Montgomery says such borrowers should approach their existing
lenders to get a discount "because the easiest and cheapest way is
to talk to your lender first before going anywhere else."
She says borrowers who can't afford to risk higher repayments
may want to consider a one-year fixed rate loan. By this time next
year, variable and fixed rates may be lower.
Some fixed-rate loans are flexible and allow the borrower to
make extra repayments, so it's worth checking the terms and
conditions of the loan.
But if you need to break the loan for any reason - for example,
you may want to sell the home to move elsewhere - there maybe high
costs involved.